Jct: Just want to thank those of you still listening here by reminding you that
I have 7 instructional poker videos. Of course, there's the Turmel Two Step but
the latest Danger Odds tool is really incredible.

So here's the new revised Poker Power Tool #1:
Read it in a fixed courier font .

You'll remember I sent my entry to
TURMEL: Caro's $100 RGP Challenge #3

In exactly 25 words, the most important thing for any poker player to
know is:
---
Outs: 1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   12  15
Need
Odds: 45  22  14  10  8   7   6   5   4   3   2
---
This vector is Poker Tool #1 from the Turmel Two-Step. It is quite
easy to learn and very powerful when used at the table.
see: http://www.cyberclass.net/gambler.htm

We then realized the the same array could be used for danger outs:
Your aces facing a flop with 2 Queens, 4 outs danger per opponent, 10:1 against
one. Except that with 20 outs of danger with 5 opponents, that's 100 outs, a
weird number. But I noticed a pattern! An incredible beautiful pattern giving
those weird numbers their odds.

Outs: 25  37  49  59  65  70  75  80  85  90 100  110
Need
Odds: 1   -2  -3  -4  -5  -6  -7  -8 -10 -12 -18 >-22

For odds up to -8:1 (initial count up to 80):
For opponents: 3   4   5   6   7   8
Adjust count: +5  +3  +1  -1  -3  -5

For odds of -12:1 (count around 90):
For opponents: 3   4   5   6   7   8
Adjust count:+10  +6  +2  -2  -6  -10

For odds of more than -22:1 (count around 110):
For opponents: 3   4   5   6   7   8
Adjust count:+20 +12  +4  -4 -12 -20

You're almost never up in the 80s, 90s and 100s so most of the time, you're
still 8:1 with 80 outs of danger. With a 20 bet pot, are you going to call?

I tell you, knowing instantly the odds of your hand being beaten depending on
the number of opponents is an incredible advantage. I've enjoyed using it with
great delight. You should too.

In one total array for the first time ever, the complete Turmel Outs-Odds array:

Outs: 1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   12  15
25  37  49  59  65  70  75  80  85  90 100  110
Need
Odds: 45  22  14  10  8   7   6   5   4   3   2
1   -2  -3  -4  -5  -6  -7  -8 -10 -12 -18 >-22

--- In turmeltwostep@yahoogroups.com, bc726@... wrote:
>
> JCT: In my last post, I reproduced the complete array of
> threat outs vectors: (best aligned in txt mode).
> Odds for Outs Danger vs Opponents
>      1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8 oppts
> Outs
> 2   -22-10-7 -5 -4 -3 -2 -2
> 4   -10-5 -3 -2  1  1  1  2
> 6   -7 -3 -2  1  1  2  2  3
> 8   -5 -2  1  2  2  3  3  4
> 10  -4  1  1  2  3  4  5  7
> 12  -3  1  2  3  4  6  8  11
>
> 14  -2  1  2  4  5  8  12 18
> 16  -2  2  3  5  8  12 19 >22
> 18  -2  2  4  7  11 19 >22
> 20   1  3  5  9  17 >22
> 23   1  3  7  15 >22
> 30   2  8  >22

Jct: I found a simple equation to multiply danger outs
by 3 to 8 opponents and a simple compensating factor to know the
chart. I did a video at youtube explaining it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkfAL1daLu0

Keep a print out of the array to you can check as I go.
It's an incredibly powerful tool.

JCT: On March 30 2009 I went to the opening of the Montreal Poker
Room
with live dealers. It's a nice large room and all 14 tables were
packed. It
was mostly no-limit up to $10/$10 which I find slow and elementary
compared
to the possible 4 bets of information at every round in limit. They
did have a
list for $5/$10, $10/$20 and $30/$60 which I got on but by the time
the list for
the $10/$20 had grown big enough, there were no tables left! There was
only
one $3/$6 limit game going on.

Several things I did not like. The gaming area is cordoned off so
people can't stand around to watch like in many other rooms I've
played in. What better way for someone to check out the game before
giving it a try? I see absolutely no reason for closing off the floor
from spectators and wonder why they do.

The big unsustainability is the incredibly high rake-off. $10 per pot
and $1 for the bad-beat pool.

Take the typical $10/$20 game with a session fee of $10/hr, about 25
cents per hand at 40 hands per hour. $100 an hour leaves the table.
Many players manage to beat that $10/hr fee and provide a nucleus of
professionals and competent amateurs acting as unpaid shills to keep
games alive 24/7 even short-handed.

Take the typical $10/$20 game with a $5 rake-off. At about 40
hands/hr, that's around $160 off the table per hour, $16 an hour
instead of $10, 40 cents per hand. A lot less competent amateurs beat
$16/hr than $10/hr so the game becomes that much less sustainable.

When smoking was banned at the Taj Mahal in Atlantic City in the late
1990s, the smokers convinced management to switch from the $10/hr
session fee to the $16/hr rake-off so they could go outside to smoke
without it costing them anything. But for spans of hands where
they're
gone, the $160 an hour is divided by remaining 8 players for a $20/hr
or 50 cents per hand cost while they're gone. And it also speeded up
the game so the other eight of us were paying even more than $20 an
hour, 50 cents per hand.

Seven-handed games are even worse with the cost reaching in excess of
$25/hr. That explains why I could find only one $10/$20 game in
Edmonton Alberta only on Friday nights that died as soon as it got
down to 7 players. In Brantford, they've had $10/$20 and $20/$40
games
that have gone on 24hrs/7days for years. Smaller session fee but full
time action instead of Alberta's bigger rake-off and almost no
action.

So the TajProfessor got 140 signatures on a petition in one week-end
to convince the Taj management to switch back to the $10/hr session
fee from the $16/hr rake-off and saved every professional and
competent amateur more than $6/hr since then. But it also kept the
Taj
Mahal fuller of free-shilling competent amateurs and professionals
than any raked house ever could.

Now consider the $10 rake-off in Montreal which is the same carny
rip-off rake as for the few weeks at the Canadian National Exhibition
in Toronto. That's $320 an hour, $32/hr or 80 cents per hand that no
competent amateur and few professionals could beat.

So their greed is going to kill their game unless they switch to the
session fee to sustain 24/7 action like in Brantford. Luckily, I've
heard that the Quebec gaming ministry does have provision for
charging
a session fee so there may be a chance to convince them to change.
Unless they charge $30 an hour because they can get away with it
until
all their poker players go broke.

I won't be going back soon but if I do, I should bring along a
petition to switch from the rake-off to the session fee, unless they
can be convinced to do the smart thing on their own by reading this
post. Based on the Taj Mahal session fee structure, I recommend:
$5 or $10 game is $10 per hour
$15 game is $12 her hour
$20 or $25 game is $14 per hour
$30 or $40 game is $16 per hour
$50 game is $18 per hour

Should they switch, I predict a long and prosperous run for the
casino
and its large pool of professionals and competent amateurs.

081022 Play Holdem Poker like a Bookie
Turmel-Two-Step Holdem Poker Call Odds system for counting outs to
know required pot odds with Poker Power Tool #1 Outs-Odds Array and
Poker Power Tool #2 Hand feature values.

090206 Holdem Poker's Biggest Leak
Why the Rule of 4 is Holdem Poker's biggest leak and would be better
renamed the "All-in Rule of 4."

090206 Two-Card Hands Odds System
Poker Power Tool #5 for determining percent of groups of two-card
hands.

090206 Playable Hands System
Poker Power Tool #6 for determining the dogs of poker which never
break even and can never be played.

Jct: The audio of the first post wasn't working and now is.

090207 Board Danger Odds System
Poker Power Tool #3 for determining the odds of someone beating you
given different board features

090207 Board Danger Odds for 8 opponents
Poker Power Tool #4 for detetermining the odds of being beaten for
different boards for 1-8 opponents

090210 Board Danger Odds System
Poker Power Tool #9 for quickly getting danger odds vs 3-8 opponents.
I just invented this one!

These videos are at my http://youtube.com/kingofthepaupers channel
and
the index is at http://johnturmel.com/tajprof.htm

Jct: I've just posted three videos at my Youtube channel on
- Holdem Poker's Biggest Leak
- Two-Card Hands Odds System
- Playable Hands System at
See http://youtube.com/kingofthepaupers

JCT: In a recent post, I explained my "go-thru" style of
betting where I play quality cards that I'm willing to bet 7
bets and go through to the river. This ensures a minimum
automatic number of bluffs.

I also explained the pounce style of betting with precisely
the minimum number of chips. I do this to project an
aggressive demeanor at all times.

When do you want to appear week and appear strong?
You want to seem weak when you are strong trying to entice a
call and win an extra bet.
You want to seem strong when you are weak trying to entice a
fold and win an extra pot.
So which demeanor would you rather practice all the time?
Enticing extra bets or enticing extra pots?

So it pays to always bet with exaggerated authority,
muttering "yeehaa, my card," before each bet.

One last thing I do to add to my overall intent to entice
folds to win pots is showdown all my beautiful hands. Any
time I have beauties (that most people would also have
played in the same way so you're not giving up much, it's
what and how you play your weak cards that reveal useful
information) I turn them up. Every time a guy makes a good
fold, I show him it was a good fold. I always try to
inculcate the impression that I only play quality cards and
I want them feeling good about folding almost every time.
Needless to say, once in a while I forget to the show my
hand and only you and I know that that's because I thought
it was probably a loser and I didn't want to make them feel
bad about folding.

So, when you consider the go-thru style of play, you have to
admit that the constant aggressive betting style and the
100% showing of winning hands and the 100% showing of
beautiful losing hands and the 0% showing of ugly winning
hands has to help.

So, the premise is that there is almost nothing to be gained
by hiding your winning cards and when you are playing a go-
thru style of betting, showing your beauties and always
betting aggressively is an important part of the technique.

And there's no greater feeling in limit poker that putting
in that River bet into two or even three opponents and
seeing them all fold that 1/15th of the time when they all
had nothing so you can win that 20-bet pot. Imagine the
beauty of knowing you'll be forced to make a certain number
of bluffs automatically. I appreciate it.

Sure there are those inspired times to bluff but not that
many in one evening. There are far more times I'm putting in
money on "go thru" bluff than an inspired one.

So now you know why I show my winning and beautiful losing
cards, the only person I know of who does.


John C. "The Banking Systems Engineer" Turmel, King of the Paupers, Great
Canadian Gambler, Author of the UNILETS interest-free time-based currency United
Nations C6 recommendation to Governments in the
http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration.htm
http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel

Sent to you by johnturmel@... using the Google's sharing button
<br>
Play Holdem Poker like a Bookie
2008-10-21 Turmel-Two-Step Holdem Poker Call Odds System
by TajProfessor Great Canadian Gambler
John &quot;The Engineer&quot; Turmel<br><br>
For more details, please visit the url below:
http://video.google.ca/videoplay?docid=-4420999407034540500&amp;hl=un


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Hello,

This email message is a notification to let you know that
a file has been uploaded to the Files area of the turmeltwostep
group.

   File        : /2stepsys.txt
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   Description : 2008 Turmel Two Holdem Poker Step Call Odds System

You can access this file at the URL:
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To learn more about file sharing for your group, please visit:
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Regards,

johnturmel <johnturmel@...>

Hello,

This email message is a notification to let you know that
a file has been uploaded to the Files area of the turmeltwostep
group.

   File        : /2stepsys.txt
   Uploaded by : johnturmel <johnturmel@...>
   Description : Turmel-Two-Step Holdem Poker Call Odds System

You can access this file at the URL:
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To learn more about file sharing for your group, please visit:
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Regards,

johnturmel <johnturmel@...>

On Aug 21, 11:26 am, "Bazzer Smith" <m...@...> wrote:
> I tried this book and lost a fortune.
> It's garbage.
>
> "johnturmel" <johntur...@...> wrote in message
> news:cfd41052-6f3a-425e-b6b6-331a377908c2@....

> > JCT: That's the final title of "Turmel-Two-Step Holdem Poker
> > Call Odds System Study Course & Exercise Book of 15,000
> > draws"

Jct: If you called all overlays and folded all underlays and lost a
fortune,
you are either not very good at arithmetic or you lie.

For those of you in the turmeltwostep group who have
patiently stayed tuned with nothing coming out
over these many months, here's my way of playing. I only
hope no one from the Brantford game is subscribed.

Whenever I raise  with a premium hand, I raise with the
intention of putting in 7 bets, going all the way through.
Naturally, a few times a night, I'm on a limb bluffing.
Automatically, actually.

Most people don't bluff enough. That's because they're
looking for the right kind of situation which,
unfortunately, very rarely arises.

How often do most people bet out on a limb on the River with
nothing in their hand. Most would like to check out their
weak hands and see if they were beaten. I always want to bet
and hope to drive out a slightly better hand.

So my "go thru" style. guarantees a higher number of bluffs
that are automatically made.

In every situation where I have the premium hand and am
doing the raising, I commit myself to betting all the way
through or until I'm raised at which time I use the Call
Odds System to see if I have the odds to chase.

But if no one raises, I'm going to go thru every time.

Which means that once in a while, I'm cringing as I bet into
the field but they all fold and I take down the pot.

Now of course, I also have a particular style of play.
I pounce on the pot with my bet. That's done with a fast
hard bet with exactly the minimum number of chips, three
quarters and a nickel instead of 16 nickels, so the dealer
is on the caller's face with no time to think.

And before I suddenly pounce my bet into the pot after a
little thought, (pure show since I'm betting through anyway)
I mentally scream out "Yeehaa. my card" or "Yeehaa, scare
card." Because that scare card is just as scary to the other
guy except that you're the one who's projecting the Yeehaa
as you bet.

If you want to try this some time, I advise you give
yourself a cushion of 20 throwaway bets before you give up
the gothru method. When you hit a pot on a bet you were
cringing about throwing away, add those bets to the cushion.

I'd bet that you'll find yourself pulling off a dozen of
these power bluffs a night. And a couple will pay off. And
you'll be off on a cushion of extra bets that should keep
growing and growing as you yeehaa your way to a certain
number of bluffs that your game is probably now lacking.

I swear, heads up, I don't even look at the flop from behind
my shades. Watching my opponent, I just take the second to
let him think I'm watching the flop too before yeehaaing my
chips into the pot.

Though it may seem theatrical to many to see me pounce with
my chips with an extremely forceful bet, I do it all the
time, with and without good cards.

For most people, it's almost impossible to throw in a bluff
with great elan, but if you do it all the time, then you
throw in all bluffs with great elan all the time.

I'd rather be forceful with strong and weak cards to deter
calls when I'm bluffing at a pot than be meek and encourage
calls of one bet with a good hand. A style that increases
the chance of winning a whole pot is better than a style
that increases the chance of winning one more bet.

So it's Power Pouncing with a Yeehaa in your heart and
demeanor and you'll almost never be bluffed out of a pot
yourself and you'll make a bundle with value bets you may
not have made otherwise.

So if you play with me, check raise every time because you
can be sure I'm not going to check. But losing an extra bet
here and there is easily compensated for my winning an extra
pot here and there.

JCT: That's the final title of "Turmel-Two-Step Holdem Poker
Call Odds System Study Course & Exercise Book of 15,000
draws" that is finally being published and will be hitting
the bookstores in a few weeks. The Call Odds System includes
Poker Power Tools #1 & #2.

Also, a Bonus from John The Engineer's Poker Toolbox:

- Two-Step Board Odds System with Power Tools #3 & #4.

- Two-Card-Hands Odds System with Power Tool #5.

- Playable Hands System with Power Tool #6 deserves a book
of its own I'll call something like "The Dogs of Holdem
Poker" with the negative expectation hands identified.

- Optimal Betting System with Power Tool #7 from "A computer
analysis of Canadian Stud" devised during my Fourth Year
Engineering Project and presented to the 1976 World Gambling
Conference in Las Vegas.

- Card Memory System with Power Tool #8 from  Memory Book."

- Bet Counting System with Power Tool #9 to help you always
do your most important chore.

These are all the systems that I have developed over the
years for my own use. These are the sensors you face when
you sit down across from the Great Canadian Gambler. This
book should finalize my contribution as the TajProfessor of
Poker Systems Engineering.

You can get "Play Holdem Poker like a Bookie" now at
http://www.lulu.com/johnturmel or wait until it hits the
book-stores. Believe me, you won't want to face kids armed
with these fingers and toes systems without arming yourself
with them too.

After having been provided a free mail-box at the National
   Capital Freenet in Ottawa for the past decade and a half,
   turmel@..., the execdir@... John Selwyn has insisted
   on a $60 a year contribution for me to keep my mailbox.
   As I use Bell Sympatico from Brantford and only telnet to
   Freenet to use a mailbox that is offered for free almost
   everywhere else, I've had to give up my long-standing Ottawa
   Freenet account.
   Not quite Free Net, is it?
   I will now be reached at:
   johnturmel@...
   johnturmel@...



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Jct: Sorry I haven't posted much over the past 6 months. I spent the last year
correcting the >1000 typos in my 15,000 problem hands but can certify that
they're now ready.
   I'm going to change the cover of my final edition and add a
   phrase I've been using to explain what the TurmelTwoStep does.
   "Play like a bookie."
   Isn't "Call overlays, fold underlays," the very same as
   "bet overlays, decline underlays." Isn't that what every bookie does? It's
exactly what every bookie does. And it's exactly what every TwoStepper does.
   Once the turmeltwostep.com web site is set up and the final changes made, I'll
then publish that edition to the world's bookstores. But if anyone wants the
pre-world edition as it now stands, it is available at
http://stores.lulu.com/store.php?fAcctID=682162
   As soon as the world-edition is ready, this edition will be shut down.
   There have only been 3 bought. If no one else gets one, and if the
   TurmelTwoStep becomes the poker bible exercise book of bookie-like players,
then that should make those 3 earlier edition books pretty valuable someday.
   For instance, lulu only printed 7 of the the very first edition I published at
lulu with the 1000 typos. I have three. I've offered to buy the other four back
but no one has taken me up on it.
   So I'm writing this as an investment tip for something that won't be
   available for very much longer before the final edition takes its place.
   PS. The Brantford Poker Casino is now on strike so I've decided to
   go to Ottawa this weekend to play poker at the Lac Leamy casino across
   the river in Gatineau Quebec. It's a $5 rake on machine tables which is
   horrible at the low-limits but not so bad at a Twenty-Forty or Quarter-Fifty
game.
   So I'm inviting my Quebec, New York, and Eastern Ontario friends who
   played with me at Casino Turmel in the 1980s and 1990s to join me at High Noon
on Saturday June 7 for a week-end of high-stakes low-rake-off limit Poker.
   They also run private Tournaments so I might try to organize
   another Canadian Open Tournament, say the "Great Canadian Gambler's Open
Challenge." We need no one's permission for 50 or 100 person sit-and-go and
they're looking into the rake for a $1000 or $2000 buy-in.
   More news soon and I'm going to start writing up some of my more
   interesting hands and the unusual way of playing when you know
   all the odds.




[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Good day everyone. I just wanted to put a quick post in the forum
regarding myself and what I do in the poker world.

My name is Doug and I produce the poker radio show, House of Cards
Radio (www.houseofcardsradio.com), with host Ashley Adams. I just
wanted to do a quick introduction and to let you know about the show,
which offers a different look at the world of poker. It airs Tuesday
nights at 9 PM EST. It's sort of "The Tonight Show" of poker since we
talk about the business and entertainment side of the game.

Past shows are up on the archive page. Take a listen and if you have
any questions about the show, please feel free to ask. Thanks.

WHO: John "Great Canadian Gambler" "TajProfessor of Poker
Systems Engineering" Turmel

WHAT: Presentation to Brantford Inventors' Club on invented
Poker Tools including:

- Call Odds System
- Board Odds System
- Two-Card Hands Odds System
- Playable Hands System
- Optimal Betting System
- Card Memory System

WHERE: J's Place, 7 Erie Ave & Market (1 block from casino)

WHEN: Wednesday March 12 2008 9p.m. (Meeting starts 7p.m.)

WHY: To videotape the presentation for by the world's only professor
of poker systems engineering for uploading to the net.



--
Abolitionist Debt Slave Leader John C."The Banking Systems Engineer"
Turmel for UNILETS interest-free time-based currency in U.N. resolution
C6 to Governments in the http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration.htm
http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel USENET blog: alt.fan.john-turmel

JCT: In my last post, I reproduced the complete array of
threat outs vectors: (best aligned in txt mode).
Odds for Outs Danger vs Opponents
           Opponents
      1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8
Outs
2    22 11 7  5  4  3  3  2
4    10 5  3  2  2  1  1  1
6    7  3  2  1  1  1  2  2
8    5  2  1  1  2  2  3  4
10   4  2  1  2  2  3  5  6
12   3  1  2  3  4  5  7  10

14   2  1  2  3  5  8  12 18
16   2  1  3  5  8  12 19
18   2  2  3  6  11 19
20   1  2  5  9  16
24   1  4  8  18
30   2  7

Sorry but I've had to make some changes:

           Opponents
      1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8
Outs
2   -22-10-7 -5 -4 -3 -2 -2
4   -10-5 -3 -2  1  1  1  2
6   -7 -3 -2  1  1  2  2  3
8   -5 -2  1  2  2  3  3  4
10  -4  1  1  2  3  4  5  7
12  -3  1  2  3  4  6  8  11

14  -2  1  2  4  5  8  12 18
16  -2  2  3  5  8  12 19 >22
18  -2  2  4  7  11 19 >22
20   1  3  5  9  17 >22
23   1  3  7  15 >22
30   2  8  >22

As the number of opponents goes up, each vector going left
to right is basically odds in your favor, even money, odds
against you. I have to distinguish between for and against
with a negative sign.

Since the important odds I'll need to remember are when I'm
chasing, I've let them be positive. As to the odds when I'm
ahead that I don't need to remember, when I'm ahead by 10%
or 90%, I've let them be negative, the odds of being beaten.

So the negatives are odds against you being beaten, the
positives are odds against you being good.

But unfortunately, I rounded off the original odds. That was
a mistake. When I'm chasing, they should be rounded up, when
I'm being chased, they can be rounded down. It's not too
important when I'm in the lead but it is when I'm chasing.

For instance, looking at the old 10 outs vector

Against 5 opponents, the actual value is 2.4:1  rounded down
to 2:1. Let's say I accept 20:10 on my 24:10 shot. I'll lose
one 24 times and win two 10 times: (20-24)/34 = -11%! So I
really needed to round up to 3 to stay in the black.

Against 6 opponents, it's actually 3.4:1 rounded down to 3.
Let's say I accept 30:10 on my 34:10 shot against 6
opponents. I'll lose one 34 times and win three 10 times:
(30-34)/34 =-9%! So I really needed to round up to 4.

Opp= 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8
10  -4 -2  1  2  3  4  5  6

Nice, eh? 1 2 3 4 5 6

Similarly, if the odds are with me, I should have rounded
down though it isn't very important.

Take 2 outs against 2 opponents which was rounded up from
the real 10.8:1. to 11:1. Seems logical to round up to 11.
That's 108:10. But if I win 1 bet 108 times and lose 11 bets
10 times, (108-110)/118 =-1.6%. -1.6% may not seem much but
it's more than the vig at Craps.

So I rounded up the numbers when I was behind. And I rounded
down most of the time when I was in the lead except when I
was within a few percent for form.

So the board threat tool has been upgraded from dealing with
only 1 opponent to now deal with up to 8 just in time for me
to include it as the bonus in my Turmel-Two-Step book with
15,000 exercises that I'm finally going to publish.

Notice that the 1 opponent vector is Poker Power Tool #1!
Outs Odds
2   -22
4   -10
6   -7
8   -5
10  -4
12  -3
14  -2

Notice the symmetry in small percentage threats for vectors
for 2 outs across or 1 oppt down:

Opp= 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8
2   -22-10-7 -5 -4 -3 -2 -2 and

Opp= 1
Outs Odds
2   -22
4   -10
6   -7
8   -5
10  -4
12  -3
14  -2
16  -2

Also, vectors for 4 outs across or 2 opponents down

Opp= 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8
4   -10-5 -3 -2  1  1  1  2

Opp= 2
Outs Odds
2   -10
4   -5
6   -3
8   -2
10   1
12   1
14   1
16   2

And for vectors for 6 outs across or 3 opponents down:
Opp= 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8
6   -7 -3 -2  1  1  2  2  3

Opp= 3
Outs Odds
2   -7
4   -3
6   -2
8    1
10   1
12   2
14   2
16   3

Even vectors for 8 outs across or 4 opponents down:
Opp= 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8
8   -5 -2  1  2  2  3  3  4

Opp= 4
Outs Odds
2   -5
4   -2
6    1
8    2
10   2
12   3
14   4*
16   5*

Checking 10 outs across or 5 opponents down:

Opp= 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8
10  -4  1  1  2  3  4  5  7

Outs
2  -4
4   1
6   1
8   2
10  3
12  4
14  5
16  8*

And we would expect that 4 outs against 2 opponents would be
the same as 2 outs against 4 opponents or 8 outs. It's only
when you get into the big numbers that things don't add up
exactly.

I've also decided to use 23 outs instead of 24 for the
purposes of explaining it. 23 outs is half of 46 cards so
it's easier to explain how you'll lose 23/46 or 1/2 the time
with 1 opponent, it's squared with 2 opponents losing
(1/2)^2 = 1/4, 3:1; it's cubed with 3 opponents, 1/8, 7:1;
with 4 opponents, it's 1/16, 15:1. with 5 opponents it's
1/32, 31:1; with 6 opponents it's 1/64, 63:1; etc. So it's
easier to explain how the chances of winning shrink as 1/2;
1/4; 1/8; 1/16, 1/32 using 23 outs instead of 24.

And of course, after handling 1/2 of the deck hurting you, I
use 30 outs or about 2/3 of the deck hurting you and 1/3
helping. So you stay good against 1 opponent 1/3 (2:1) of
the time and against 2 opponents, it's squared (1/3)^2 = 1/9
(8:1). With 3 opponents, it's cubed (1/3)^3 = 1/27 (26:1).

So the odds you really need to remember are:
           Opponents
      1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8
Outs
2    +  +  +  +  +  +  +  +
4    +  +  +  +  +  +  +  2
6    +  +  +  +  +  2  2  3
8    +  +  +  2  2  3  3  4
10   +  +  +  2  3  4  5  7
12   +  +  2  3  4  6  8  11

14   +  +  2  4  5  8  12 18
16   +  2  3  5  8  12 19
18   +  2  4  7  11 19
20   +  3  5  9  17
23   +  3  7  15
30   2  8

So, this should be the final revision of these vectors.

           Opponents
      1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8
Outs
2   -22-10-7 -5 -4 -3 -2 -2
4   -10-5 -3 -2  1  1  1  2
6   -7 -3 -2  1  1  2  2  3
8   -5 -2  1  2  2  3  3  4
10  -4  1  1  2  3  4  5  7
12  -3  1  2  3  4  6  8  11

14  -2  1  2  4  5  8  12 18
16  -2  2  3  5  8  12 19 >22
18  -2  2  4  7  11 19 >22
20   1  3  5  9  17 >22
23   1  3  7  15 >22
30   2  8  >22

You have to admit, this sure adds an elegance to the board
threat tool now that we can handle not only the threat from
1 opponent but also from 8.





--
Abolitionist Debt Slave Leader John C."The Banking Systems Engineer"
Turmel for UNILETS interest-free time-based currency in U.N. resolution
C6 to Governments in the http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration.htm
http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel USENET blog: alt.fan.john-turmel

Hello,

The moderator of the turmel2step group has changed the group's name.
This means that both the group's email address and the group home page
location have changed.

The group email address:
turmeltwostep@yahoogroups.com

The group home page location:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/turmeltwostep

If you have links which point to this group or an address book entry
for the group, you should update them, as the old addresses will no
longer work.

Regards,

Yahoo! Groups Customer Care

JCT: I made a small in my last post: "1,2 Overcard 6,12-out
threat odds vectors"

>>
When you're facing one opponent, that 12% chance is 7:1. But
with more opponents, it eventually gets down top even money.
How many opponents are needed for it to be 50:50 that my
Tens are still good? With 23 outs being half the deck, I
rated hands of between 20 and 26 outs danger as even money
shots, hands of 17-19 outs as 2:1 shots for or against and
14-16 outs as 3:1 and the usual 10 outs for 4 and the rest
of the outs-odds array.

JCT: Actually, it's:

hands of 14-19 outs as 2:1 shots for or against and 11-13
outs as 3:1 and the usual 10 outs for 4 and the rest of the
outs-odds array.

A silly typo.

So here's the complete array of threat outs vectors:
(best viewed in txt mode)

Odds for Outs vs Opponents

           Opponents
      1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8
Outs
2    22 11 7  5  4  3  3  2
4    10 5  3  2  2  1  1  1
6    7  3  2  1  1  1  2  2
8    5  2  1  1  2  2  3  4

10   4  2  1  2  2  3  5  6
12   3  1  2  3  4  5  7  10
14   2  1  2  3  5  8  12 18
16   2  1  3  5  8  12 19

18   2  2  3  6  11 19
20   1  2  5  9  16
24   1  4  8  18
30   2  7

When the odds were greater than 22:1 of a 2 out hand, I
didn't include it.

Let's say that on the River, there's a 4 straight on board.
8 possible cards to beat you x 2 cards = 16 outs danger.

With 1 opponent, it's 2:1 against him having it.
With 2 opponents, it's 1:1 even money.
With 3 opponents, it's 3:1 against you being good.
With 4 opponents, it's 5:1 against you being good.
With 5 opponents, it's 8:1 against you being good.
With 6 opponents, it's 12:1 against you being good.
With 7 opponents, it's 19:1 against you being good.
With 8 opponents, it's over 22:1 against you.

The most important thing to do is to learn the even money
50-50 cut points. On the left, it's odds against opponents
having it, on the right, it's the odds against you being
good.

Let's say that you have boss set when the 4-straight hits.
If the odds of opponent having you beaten are less than the
money in the pot, you should probably call. If they are way
more than the money in the pot, you should probably fold.

Knowing this information is very useful in calling but as I
pointed out in my previous post, it's more useful in making
more money when you have a really good chance of winning
(40%) and didn't realize it.


--
Abolitionist Debt Slave Leader John C."The Banking Systems Engineer"
Turmel for UNILETS interest-free time-based currency in U.N. resolution
C6 to Governments in the http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration.htm
http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel USENET blog: alt.fan.john-turmel

JCT: Despite little news from me, I am posting this only
here to reward those of you who have remained subscribed to
my http://yahoogroups.com/group/turmel2step

I've had elections and legal cases to keep me busy but I've
had some time to play poker. So I'm going to teach you how
to use threat odds vectors in deciding what to do.

Here is the hand:

ThTd
I raise under the gun 5 callers and one blind stay. 14 bets
in the pot.

Flop: Qs6c3h

Ouch! The overcard is bad news. I bet out. All call. Almost
22 bets in the pot.

Next card is Deuce. I bet. Five call. Button folds though he
later admitted the deuce had hit his Jack Deuce. 34 bets in
the pot.

Last card, Jack. Bad news. Another overcard. The guy who'd
folded his Deuce Jack must be have been in shock for missing
his two pairs. I bet 2. All fold except the blind. I throw
up my pair of 10s, he shows pair of sixes. I win the 38-bet
pot.

Of course, everyone thought I was crazy to bet into 6
opponents with an overcard on board. They all thought I
could beat Queens to do that. But was it crazy to bet or was
it prorifable?

Each opponent can have one of the 3 Queens in either of his
two cards for 6 outs of danger, 7:1 against.

When you're facing one opponent, that 12% chance is 7:1. But
with more opponents, it eventually gets down top even money.
How many opponents are needed for it to be 50:50 that my
Tens are still good? With 23 outs being half the deck, I
rated hands of between 20 and 26 outs danger as even money
shots, hands of 17-19 outs as 2:1 shots for or against and
14-16 outs as 3:1 and the usual 10 outs for 4 and the rest
of the outs-odds array.

In the case of the 6-out threat vector for 1-8 opponents:

Oppts 1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8
Odds  7    3    2    1    1    1    -2   -2

So with 1 opponent, it's 7:1 against your Tens being beaten.
You have 87% chance of winning.

With 2 opponents, it's 3:1 against your Tens being beaten,
25% chance of being beaten.

With 3 opponents, it's 2:1, 33% chance of your being beaten.

With 4 opponents, it's 20 outs, about even money, 40% chance
of being beaten.

With 5 opponents, it's 23 outs, even money, of being beaten.

With 6 opponents, it's 20 outs, even money, of being good.
20outs x 2% is good about 40% of the time!

So a pair looking at an overcard on board with 6 opponents
is still good 40% of the time, 3:2 against you.

If I check on the Flop and someone bets and others call,
I'll pretty well have to fold with what is essentially a 2-
out draw and miss out the 40% of the time that I happen to
still be good.

But by betting, I'm going to make money the 40% of the time
I'm good, in this case, 6:1, or 12:2 when I'm a 3:2 bet.
That's a 300% profit on my bet the 40% of the time I'm
winning and a 100% loss the 60% of the time I'm losing.

So, on the theory I may as well make money the 40% of the
time I'm still good, I bet into the field. Any raise might
still offer me the 22:1 I need to chase the 2 tens alone.

Same on the Turn. When that deuce fell, I said to myself
that I'm still good 40% of the time and since no one raised
me on the flop, there's an even better chance I'm still good
now. So I bet my 3:2 shot and got 10:2 on my money with 5
callers.

When the Jack fell on the River, Folder of the Jack-Deuce
must have been making a silent scream. But with 37 bets to
2: 17:1, he should have gone for his 5-out 8:1 shot and
turned down a 100% overlay. Had I checked the Turn, he'd
have drawn to beat me for free. It was knowing that despite
the 6 opponents out there who could be holding a Queen, it
remained more than a third no one had it. Sure, I was
throwing away a bet the 60% of the time they had me but I
was also making 6:1 on the 40% I had them. So knowing the
numbers, it was actually quite easy to roar despite the
overpair and make sure you profit the 40% when you're good.

I wasn't happy either. I was facing a 12-out threat. The 12
out threat odds vector is:

Oppts 1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8
Odds  3    1   -2   -3   -4   -5   -7   -10

With a quarter of the deck against you, 12 cards, per
opponent, it's 3:1 against with 1 opponent beating you, even
money with 2 opponents, 2:1 against you beating 3 opponents,
3:1 against your beating 4, etc. but for  5 opponents, I'm
80%, 4:1, but that's still 20% to the good.

If I check and someone bets 80% of the time, I'll have to
call for that 36 bet pot. So every time someone has me
beaten, I pay and every time I'm winning, I get nothing.

If I bet, every time someone's got me beaten, I pay the same
80%, but every time I'm winning, 20%, I get paid. So on my
thesis that if I'm going to call, I'll usually bet, I bet on
the end and make that last value bet because it happened to
be that 20% in time when I'm still gopd!

Boldness won the day. But it was boldness born of the hefty
probability that I was still good. Most people think there's
almost no chance with 6 opponents and would be shocked to
learn that they're still 40%.

So memorize these two very important threat odds vectors. 1
overcard and 2 overcard dangers occur very often. I'l
publish the others pretty soon.

ET:
4 outs make trips with Pair on board,
8 outs to have an inside 4-straight card (4x2)
16 outs to have an outside 4-straight card (8x2)
18 outs with 4-flush on board to have flush (9x2)
But 6 out and 12 out threat odds vectors are the most i
important.

The threat odds vectors are to be used in conjunction with
the board threat tool. You know how to figure out the threat
in outs, how you can extend that to figure out the threat
against up to 8 opponents. I should have published this
years ago but then, it was merely charts of percentages that
I could work out, not counted in outs like it is now.

So memorize these first two threat odds vectors to get a
whole new feel for the game.


--
Abolitionist Debt Slave Leader John C."The Banking Systems Engineer"
Turmel for UNILETS interest-free time-based currency in U.N. resolution
C6 to Governments in the http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration.htm
http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel USENET blog: alt.fan.john-turmel

john where are you playing poker now a days


>From: bc726@...
>Reply-To: turmel2step@yahoogroups.com
>To: turmel2step@yahoogroups.com
>Subject: [turmel2step] TAJPROFESSOR: Biggest Gaming House Raid in History
>Anniversary
>Date: Fri, 13 Jul 2007 22:48:59 -0400 (EDT)
>
>
>JCT: Wow, fourteen years ago today was the biggest gaming
>house raid in history on the 28-table Casino Turmel in
>Ottawa.
>
>See: http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel/gambler.htm
>
>--
>Abolitionist Debt Slave Leader John C."The Banking Systems Engineer"
>Turmel for UNILETS interest-free time-based currency in U.N. resolution
>C6 to Governments in the http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration.htm
>http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel USENET blog: alt.fan.john-turmel

_________________________________________________________________
Tell us your tech love story in the Summer Lovin Competition for your chance
to win laptop loaded with Windows Vista, Office 2007 and Windows Live
OneCare.
http://www.microsoft.com/canada/home/contests/summerlovin/default.aspx

JCT: Wow, fourteen years ago today was the biggest gaming
house raid in history on the 28-table Casino Turmel in
Ottawa.

See: http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel/gambler.htm

--
Abolitionist Debt Slave Leader John C."The Banking Systems Engineer"
Turmel for UNILETS interest-free time-based currency in U.N. resolution
C6 to Governments in the http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration.htm
http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel USENET blog: alt.fan.john-turmel

Hello,

This email message is a notification to let you know that
a file has been uploaded to the Files area of the turmel2step
group.

   File        : /holdstat.xls
   Uploaded by : johnturmel <bc726@...>
   Description : Work out Standard Deviation / Average

You can access this file at the URL:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/turmel2step/files/holdstat.xls

To learn more about file sharing for your group, please visit:
http://help.yahoo.com/help/us/groups/files

Regards,

johnturmel <bc726@...>

Hello,

This email message is a notification to let you know that
a file has been uploaded to the Files area of the turmel2step
group.

   File        : /apriori.htm
   Uploaded by : johnturmel <bc726@...>
   Description : A Priori odds for first two cards system

You can access this file at the URL:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/turmel2step/files/apriori.htm

To learn more about file sharing for your group, please visit:
http://help.yahoo.com/help/us/groups/files

Regards,

johnturmel <bc726@...>

JCT: Just because it's inspiring:

Out of the night that covers me,
Black as the pit from pole to pole,
I thank whatever gods may be
For my unconquerable soul.

In the fell clutch of circumstance
I have not winced nor cried aloud.
Under the bludgeonings of chance
My head is bloody, but unbowed.

Beyond this place of wrath and tears
Looms but the Horror of the shade,
And yet the menace of the years
Finds and shall find me unafraid.

It matters not how straight the gait,
How charged with punishments the scroll,
I am the master of my fate.
I am the captain of my soul.


--
Abolitionist Debt Slave Leader John C."The Banking Systems Engineer"
Turmel for UNILETS interest-free time-based currency in U.N. resolution
C6 to Governments in the http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration.htm
http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel USENET blog: alt.fan.john-turmel

JCT: Canadian Poker Player (Canada's Poker Magazine) had
some great articles in Volume 4 Issue 4 including a first by
James McIlwrath <jmci1@...> who plays with me in the
Brantford Poker Room called "Taking a punch" detailing the
benefits of aggression and mixing it up: "I've gone from
being afraid of the bully to becoming that bully just by
learning not to be afraid to take a punch." Quite the
insight.

Keith Ritchie's great article on the threat of playing bots.
All they really need is to let a calculator do the playing
in limit.

There was U.of.Regina Math Prof. Brian Alspach's "Choose
your weapon" analysis of the best hand to take on two red
Aces without resorting to the Monte Carlo methods I resorted
to to pin down my numbers. He called it "the ugly approach,"
I'm sure the opinion of most mathematicians of us unruly
engineers, but letting a computer do 100,000 trials and
statistically deriving the results worked beautifully
without needing to do complicated math. But it's always
fascinating to be reminded of the elegant equations backing
up empirical observations. So far, one black Ten and one red
Ten fare better than two red Tens against two red Aces.
Makes sense. Next month, we'll probably go on to two black
Tens...

Devin Armstrong <www.myspace.com/downtowndevobrown> defends
well against the sneers of the No-Limit experts who decry
their inability to steal pots in Limit Poker by explaining
how to move people off the pot in Limit games! Har har har
har. My motto on the end: If I'm not check-raising but going
to call, I'm betting out to make them pay those times I'm
good. It's exactly the situation he used. The only times you
don't bet out is if opponent is a mouse who'll check at any
perceived board threat. "I didn't get the last bet but I did
get the pot" they smile sheepishly as they pull in their
pot. I never say: Sorry, the pot could only be won by your
cards and the last bet could only be won by you. But I do
hum to myself the famous theme from the Saturday Night Fever
Disco song: Macho macho mouse..."

D.L. Brook <dl_brook@...> goes into all legitimate
cut-throat tactics right out of Frank R. Wallace's "Advanced
Concepts of Poker."

Dean Stone <dean@...> blows it all in his
article "Suited Cards." He derides "flush fish" who "can't
help but chase that draw even though they're a 3:1 dog every
time."

JCT: A 3:1 dog every time? Let's see. From Turmel's Poker
Power Tool #1:

Step 1) Count pot bets for outs needed to chase:
Odds: 45 22 14 10 8 7 6 5 4 3+ 3+ 3  2+ 2+ 2 offered by pot
Outs: 1  2  3  4  5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 needed to call

A pot of 3:1 bets needs 12 outs to chase.

But from Turmel's Poker Power Tool #2:

Step 2) Count outs to "Call Overlays, Fold Underlays."
Draw: 4FL 4S2 4S1 TRS PRK PR2 OC1 PRP 3FL 3ST
Turn: 9   8   4   10  5   4   3   2   0   0  outs on Turn
Flop: 9   8   4   8   5   4   3   2   2-0 1  outs on Flop

We see that a pot of 4:1 bets needs the flush 9 outs. Off by
25%! But was it a typo? Last paragrash:

"Suited cards can make a session profitable and they can
make a session disastrous. If you play suited cards that
have value outside the fact they are suited, you will have
more success. Remember that you're a 3:1 underdog on the
flush draw and you should be getting the pot odds if you're
going to chase."

JCT: Gee, he's taking 3:1 on flush draws!!! Come on over and
I'll give you 3.5:1 (7:2) all night. With true odds actually
being 37:9, 4.25:1, he's giving me a 1.25/4.25=29% overlay.
Only the carnies can beat someone faster than 29%!

Sad no one caught an error from Poker's most basic Outs-Odds
Tool, so basic I called it Poker Power Tool #1.


--
Abolitionist Debt Slave Leader John C."The Banking Systems Engineer"
Turmel for UNILETS interest-free time-based currency in U.N. resolution
C6 to Governments in the http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration.htm
http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel USENET blog: alt.fan.john-turmel

I don't have a problem with you posting these, I just don't understand
why the columns don't line up properly, and it makes it a little hard
to read....

Mike

--- In turmel2step@yahoogroups.com, bc726@... wrote:
>
>
> >Article #4351 (4352 is last):
> >Subject: Re: TAJPROFESSOR: Turmel2Step #047 Outs-Odds
> >From: "Irish Mike" <mjostar@...>
> >Newsgroups: alt.fan.john-turmel,rec.gambling.poker,
> >rec.gambling.misc,alt.gambling,can.politics
> >Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2007 17:20:42 GMT
>
> IM: I really dislike BAHHs (Boring Ass Hand Histories)
>
> JCT: Irish Mike thinks these Outs-counting Odds-deriving
> exercises are Boring Ass Hand Histories. I would think that
> each one only taking one line to tell would put these
> histories in a class of Hands that can't be called boring.
>
> IM: but this piece of shit takes the BAHH bar to a whole new
> level.
>
> JCT: Yes, twenty hand histories in only twenty lines has
> reduced it to a whole new level.
>
> IM: Be a little considerate bucko and put "BAHH" in the
> subject line so we can skip this crap. Irish Mike
>
> JCT: Yes, you've convinced me how upsetting it must be to
> find out some of us don't need our online calculators to
> 2step in only seconds to the winner-loser cut points for
> these problem hand histories while people like you can't
> solve them at all. Sounds like you don't even know how to
> use your free online Outs-Odds calculator. Where do you
> play?
>
> >Subject: Re: TAJPROFESSOR: Turmel2Step #049 Outs-Odds
> >Article #4354 (4355 is last):
> >From: <britt@...>
> >Newsgroups: alt.fan.john-turmel,can.politics
> >Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2007 07:38:31 -0500
>
> John Turmel bc726@... said:
> >> ON THE FLOP
>
> >fuck off with the spam, ass wipe. You've been reported.
> Dumb cocksucker Turmel, are you still diddling little boys?
>
> JCT: Okay. I admit that publishing these last 1000 problem
> hands that I can solve in seconds might seem like boasting.
> It is since this couldn't be done in a live game before I
> invented the 2step.
>
> So with 1000 of the over 12000 problem hands published,
> people can have a feel for what I've invented, even if not
> Irish Mike nor others who never got past grade-school math.
>
> And I discovered over 1000 typos and mistakes while doing
> the 12000 problem exercises myself. Of course, with every
> problem repeated for 5 opponents, each error was quintupled.
> Still that's 200 errors in about 3000 generic problem hands.
>
> Prudently, I only published my draft at lulu and only sold 5
> copies. I didn't publish it to the world's book-sellers.
> Boy, would that have been a boner. Still, those five "boner"
> editions should be more valuable some day. Besides, once you
> know the system, you can use the boner edition to "spot the
> TajProfessor's mistakes."
>
> If anyone bought one of the only first five editions and
> wants a refund, sure.
>
> Very soon, I'll be publishing the perfected exercise book to
> the world network. As I pointed out, you don't need an
> exercise book to know how to use the system, you just need
> to learn the 14-line system:
>
> Step 1) Count pot bets for outs needed to chase:
> Odds: 45 22 14 10 8 7 6 5 4 3+ 3+ 3  2+ 2+ 2 offered by pot
> Outs: 1  2  3  4  5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 needed to call
>
> Step 2) Count outs to "Call Overlays, Fold Underlays."
> Draw: 4FL 4S2 4S1 TRS PRK PR2 OC1 PRP 3FL 3ST
> Turn: 9-1 8   4   10  5   4   3   2   0   0  outs on Turn
> Flop: 9-1 8   4   8   5   4   3   2   2-0 1  outs on Flop
>
> Boss 1-card 0-overgap 4-flush is 99(999) outs vs 1-5 oppts.
> 1-overgap 88(776); 2-overgaps 87(655); 3-overgaps 76(544);
> 4&5-overgaps and 4&5-undergaps 75(432);
> 3&2-undergaps 64(321); 1&0-undergaps 53(211).
> Demote all draws by 1 rank if no Ace is on board.
> Non-Boss 1-card 3-flush is 1 out except for the bottom five
> ranks against 3 or more opponents which are worth 0 outs.
>
> JCT: That's all there is to it. And the fact it's so
> elegantly simple is what makes the Irish Mikes of the world
> look so bad while making playing poker against the Irish
> Mikes of the world look so good.
>
>
> --
> Abolitionist Slave Leader John C."The Banking Systems Engineer" Turmel
> for UNILETS interest-free time-based currency in U.N. resolution C6
> to Governments in the http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration.htm
> http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel 519-753-0645 USENET: can.politics
>

>Article #4361 (4361 is last):
>From: "Qdog223" <cquinn@...>
>Newsgroups: alt.fan.john-turmel,rec.gambling.poker,
>rec.gambling.misc,alt.gambling,can.politics
>Subject: TAJPROFESSOR: End after 1000 turmel2step exercises
>Date: 23 Feb 2007 04:03:23 -0800

Please explain the demotion of draws if no ace on the board.
Qdog223

JCT: From my previously published research for 1 opponent, I
found that all 12 Ace hands are profitable while most other
hands have less than half that are playable. Playable Queen
high hands are QJ, QT, Q9, Q8, with Q7 suited and Q6 suited,
barely 5 breakeven combinations compared to the Ace's
twelve. So if people play Ace high hands twice as often as
other cards, double the chance of danger if the flush Ace is
not on the board and remains a threat. So we have to take
into account that the chance of his having the Boss Ace at
twice the normal probability.

All it really involves is assuming an extra overgap is the
Ace is missing. Seems complicated but being off just one out
can be quite a large leak so the Ace had to be accounted
for.



--
Abolitionist Slave Leader John C."The Banking Systems Engineer" Turmel
for UNILETS interest-free time-based currency in U.N. resolution C6
to Governments in the http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration.htm
http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel 519-753-0645 USENET: can.politics

>Article #4351 (4352 is last):
>Subject: Re: TAJPROFESSOR: Turmel2Step #047 Outs-Odds
>From: "Irish Mike" <mjostar@...>
>Newsgroups: alt.fan.john-turmel,rec.gambling.poker,
>rec.gambling.misc,alt.gambling,can.politics
>Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2007 17:20:42 GMT

IM: I really dislike BAHHs (Boring Ass Hand Histories)

JCT: Irish Mike thinks these Outs-counting Odds-deriving
exercises are Boring Ass Hand Histories. I would think that
each one only taking one line to tell would put these
histories in a class of Hands that can't be called boring.

IM: but this piece of shit takes the BAHH bar to a whole new
level.

JCT: Yes, twenty hand histories in only twenty lines has
reduced it to a whole new level.

IM: Be a little considerate bucko and put "BAHH" in the
subject line so we can skip this crap. Irish Mike

JCT: Yes, you've convinced me how upsetting it must be to
find out some of us don't need our online calculators to
2step in only seconds to the winner-loser cut points for
these problem hand histories while people like you can't
solve them at all. Sounds like you don't even know how to
use your free online Outs-Odds calculator. Where do you
play?

>Subject: Re: TAJPROFESSOR: Turmel2Step #049 Outs-Odds
>Article #4354 (4355 is last):
>From: <britt@...>
>Newsgroups: alt.fan.john-turmel,can.politics
>Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2007 07:38:31 -0500

John Turmel bc726@... said:
>> ON THE FLOP

>fuck off with the spam, ass wipe. You've been reported.
Dumb cocksucker Turmel, are you still diddling little boys?

JCT: Okay. I admit that publishing these last 1000 problem
hands that I can solve in seconds might seem like boasting.
It is since this couldn't be done in a live game before I
invented the 2step.

So with 1000 of the over 12000 problem hands published,
people can have a feel for what I've invented, even if not
Irish Mike nor others who never got past grade-school math.

And I discovered over 1000 typos and mistakes while doing
the 12000 problem exercises myself. Of course, with every
problem repeated for 5 opponents, each error was quintupled.
Still that's 200 errors in about 3000 generic problem hands.

Prudently, I only published my draft at lulu and only sold 5
copies. I didn't publish it to the world's book-sellers.
Boy, would that have been a boner. Still, those five "boner"
editions should be more valuable some day. Besides, once you
know the system, you can use the boner edition to "spot the
TajProfessor's mistakes."

If anyone bought one of the only first five editions and
wants a refund, sure.

Very soon, I'll be publishing the perfected exercise book to
the world network. As I pointed out, you don't need an
exercise book to know how to use the system, you just need
to learn the 14-line system:

Step 1) Count pot bets for outs needed to chase:
Odds: 45 22 14 10 8 7 6 5 4 3+ 3+ 3  2+ 2+ 2 offered by pot
Outs: 1  2  3  4  5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 needed to call

Step 2) Count outs to "Call Overlays, Fold Underlays."
Draw: 4FL 4S2 4S1 TRS PRK PR2 OC1 PRP 3FL 3ST
Turn: 9-1 8   4   10  5   4   3   2   0   0  outs on Turn
Flop: 9-1 8   4   8   5   4   3   2   2-0 1  outs on Flop

Boss 1-card 0-overgap 4-flush is 99(999) outs vs 1-5 oppts.
1-overgap 88(776); 2-overgaps 87(655); 3-overgaps 76(544);
4&5-overgaps and 4&5-undergaps 75(432);
3&2-undergaps 64(321); 1&0-undergaps 53(211).
Demote all draws by 1 rank if no Ace is on board.
Non-Boss 1-card 3-flush is 1 out except for the bottom five
ranks against 3 or more opponents which are worth 0 outs.

JCT: That's all there is to it. And the fact it's so
elegantly simple is what makes the Irish Mikes of the world
look so bad while making playing poker against the Irish
Mikes of the world look so good.


--
Abolitionist Slave Leader John C."The Banking Systems Engineer" Turmel
for UNILETS interest-free time-based currency in U.N. resolution C6
to Governments in the http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration.htm
http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel 519-753-0645 USENET: can.politics

ON THE FLOP
Hand[Board]Opps IDNo Prs+Str+Fl=Outs IDNo OutsSum\Odds
6s5s[Ks8s5c]3   BP25 ___+___+___=___ BP25 5+1+9=15\2
4s3s[5s4d3h]1   BJ26 ___+___+___=___ BJ26 4+ +2=06\7
9s9h[As8s7d]4   EE11 ___+___+___=___ EE11 2+1+1=04\10
6s5s[8d5d5c]1   BC66 ___+___+___=___ BC66 8+1+ =09\4

4s3s[Ks5d3c]1   BJ37 ___+___+___=___ BJ37 5+1+2=08\5
9s8c[Ks5s3s]3   DP05 ___+___+___=___ DP05  +1+4=05\8
6c2s[AsQsTs]3   DJ01 ___+___+___=___ DJ01  + +2=02\22
9c8s[5s3s2d]3   ES10 ___+___+___=___ ES10 6+1+ =07\6

TsTc[KsQs5d]3   EN12 ___+___+___=___ EN12 2+1+1=04\10
9s8c[Ks8s7s]1   DP18 ___+___+___=___ DP18 5+1+7=13\2+
9s7c[8s5s3s]4   DQ23 ___+___+___=___ DQ23 3+3+2=08\5
QsTs[QdJsTc]5   BJ18 ___+___+___=___ BJ18 4+ +2=06\7

ON THE TURN
Hand[Board]Opps IDNo Prs+Str+Fl=Outs IDNo OutsSum\Odds
KsKc[KdQhJdTc]5 AC61 ___+___+___=___ AC61 10+ + =10\3+
9s8c[7s6s4s3c]1 CP25 ___+___+___=___ CP25 6 +6+6=18\2
Ts7s[9s6h4d3c]4 AB29 ___+___+___=___ AB29 3 +4+ =07\6
4s2c[Ks6s5h2s]5 CS14 ___+___+___=___ CS14 5 +3+1=09\4

7s7h[9s8h6h3c]1 AC18 ___+___+___=___ AC18 2 +8+ =10\3+
8s6s[7s5s3d2c]2 AF18 ___+___+___=___ AF18 3 +6+9=18\2
5s4c[Ks7s4d3s]2 CR14 ___+___+___=___ CR14 4 +3+3=10\3+
8c7s[Ts9s7d2s]3 CP24 ___+___+___=___ CP24 5 +6+3=14\2+

Online calculators combine flush, straight and pair draws in
7-9 steps to find cut points for "Calling Overlays, Folding
Underlays." If you don't know how to count these outs to
know your odds, the Turmel2Step Holdem Outs-Odds in-head
calculator gets really close in just 2 steps (cut it out):

Step 1) Count pot bets for outs needed to chase:
Odds: 45 22 14 10 8 7 6 5 4 3+ 3+ 3  2+ 2+ 2 offered by pot
Outs: 1  2  3  4  5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 needed to call

Step 2) Count outs to "Call Overlays, Fold Underlays."
Draw: 4FL 4S2 4S1 TRS PRK PR2 OC1 PRP 3FL 3ST
Turn: 9-1 8   4   10  5   4   3   2   0   0  outs on Turn
Flop: 9-1 8   4   8   5   4   3   2   2-0 1  outs on Flop

Boss 1-card 0-overgap 4-flush is 99(999) outs vs 1-5 oppts.
1-overgap 88(776); 2-overgaps 87(655); 3-overgaps 76(544);
4&5-overgaps and 4&5-undergaps 75(432);
3&2-undergaps 64(321); 1&0-undergaps 53(211).
Demote all draws by 1 rank if no Ace is on board.
Non-Boss 1-card 3-flush is 1 out except for the bottom five
ranks against 3 or more opponents which are worth 0 outs.

From the "Turmel2Step Holdem Outs-Odds System Study Course &
Exercise Book at http://www.lulu.com/johnturmel
System at http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel/2stepsys.txt
Feedback to http://games.groups.yahoo.com/group/turmel2step


--
Abolitionist Slave Leader John C."The Banking Systems Engineer" Turmel
for UNILETS interest-free time-based currency in U.N. resolution C6
to Governments in the http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration.htm
http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel 519-753-0645 USENET: can.politics