JCT: Despite little news from me, I am posting this only
here to reward those of you who have remained subscribed to
my http://yahoogroups.com/group/turmel2step

I've had elections and legal cases to keep me busy but I've
had some time to play poker. So I'm going to teach you how
to use threat odds vectors in deciding what to do.

Here is the hand:

ThTd
I raise under the gun 5 callers and one blind stay. 14 bets
in the pot.

Flop: Qs6c3h

Ouch! The overcard is bad news. I bet out. All call. Almost
22 bets in the pot.

Next card is Deuce. I bet. Five call. Button folds though he
later admitted the deuce had hit his Jack Deuce. 34 bets in
the pot.

Last card, Jack. Bad news. Another overcard. The guy who'd
folded his Deuce Jack must be have been in shock for missing
his two pairs. I bet 2. All fold except the blind. I throw
up my pair of 10s, he shows pair of sixes. I win the 38-bet
pot.

Of course, everyone thought I was crazy to bet into 6
opponents with an overcard on board. They all thought I
could beat Queens to do that. But was it crazy to bet or was
it prorifable?

Each opponent can have one of the 3 Queens in either of his
two cards for 6 outs of danger, 7:1 against.

When you're facing one opponent, that 12% chance is 7:1. But
with more opponents, it eventually gets down top even money.
How many opponents are needed for it to be 50:50 that my
Tens are still good? With 23 outs being half the deck, I
rated hands of between 20 and 26 outs danger as even money
shots, hands of 17-19 outs as 2:1 shots for or against and
14-16 outs as 3:1 and the usual 10 outs for 4 and the rest
of the outs-odds array.

In the case of the 6-out threat vector for 1-8 opponents:

Oppts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Odds 7 3 2 1 1 1 -2 -2

So with 1 opponent, it's 7:1 against your Tens being beaten.
You have 87% chance of winning.

With 2 opponents, it's 3:1 against your Tens being beaten,
25% chance of being beaten.

With 3 opponents, it's 2:1, 33% chance of your being beaten.

With 4 opponents, it's 20 outs, about even money, 40% chance
of being beaten.

With 5 opponents, it's 23 outs, even money, of being beaten.

With 6 opponents, it's 20 outs, even money, of being good.
20outs x 2% is good about 40% of the time!

So a pair looking at an overcard on board with 6 opponents
is still good 40% of the time, 3:2 against you.

If I check on the Flop and someone bets and others call,
I'll pretty well have to fold with what is essentially a 2-
out draw and miss out the 40% of the time that I happen to
still be good.

But by betting, I'm going to make money the 40% of the time
I'm good, in this case, 6:1, or 12:2 when I'm a 3:2 bet.
That's a 300% profit on my bet the 40% of the time I'm
winning and a 100% loss the 60% of the time I'm losing.

So, on the theory I may as well make money the 40% of the
time I'm still good, I bet into the field. Any raise might
still offer me the 22:1 I need to chase the 2 tens alone.

Same on the Turn. When that deuce fell, I said to myself
that I'm still good 40% of the time and since no one raised
me on the flop, there's an even better chance I'm still good
now. So I bet my 3:2 shot and got 10:2 on my money with 5
callers.

When the Jack fell on the River, Folder of the Jack-Deuce
must have been making a silent scream. But with 37 bets to
2: 17:1, he should have gone for his 5-out 8:1 shot and
turned down a 100% overlay. Had I checked the Turn, he'd
have drawn to beat me for free. It was knowing that despite
the 6 opponents out there who could be holding a Queen, it
remained more than a third no one had it. Sure, I was
throwing away a bet the 60% of the time they had me but I
was also making 6:1 on the 40% I had them. So knowing the
numbers, it was actually quite easy to roar despite the
overpair and make sure you profit the 40% when you're good.

I wasn't happy either. I was facing a 12-out threat. The 12
out threat odds vector is:

Oppts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Odds 3 1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -7 -10

With a quarter of the deck against you, 12 cards, per
opponent, it's 3:1 against with 1 opponent beating you, even
money with 2 opponents, 2:1 against you beating 3 opponents,
3:1 against your beating 4, etc. but for 5 opponents, I'm
80%, 4:1, but that's still 20% to the good.

If I check and someone bets 80% of the time, I'll have to
call for that 36 bet pot. So every time someone has me
beaten, I pay and every time I'm winning, I get nothing.

If I bet, every time someone's got me beaten, I pay the same
80%, but every time I'm winning, 20%, I get paid. So on my
thesis that if I'm going to call, I'll usually bet, I bet on
the end and make that last value bet because it happened to
be that 20% in time when I'm still gopd!

Boldness won the day. But it was boldness born of the hefty
probability that I was still good. Most people think there's
almost no chance with 6 opponents and would be shocked to
learn that they're still 40%.

So memorize these two very important threat odds vectors. 1
overcard and 2 overcard dangers occur very often. I'l
publish the others pretty soon.

ET:
4 outs make trips with Pair on board,
8 outs to have an inside 4-straight card (4x2)
16 outs to have an outside 4-straight card (8x2)
18 outs with 4-flush on board to have flush (9x2)
But 6 out and 12 out threat odds vectors are the most i
important.

The threat odds vectors are to be used in conjunction with
the board threat tool. You know how to figure out the threat
in outs, how you can extend that to figure out the threat
against up to 8 opponents. I should have published this
years ago but then, it was merely charts of percentages that
I could work out, not counted in outs like it is now.

So memorize these first two threat odds vectors to get a
whole new feel for the game.


--
Abolitionist Debt Slave Leader John C."The Banking Systems Engineer"
Turmel for UNILETS interest-free time-based currency in U.N. resolution
C6 to Governments in the http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration.htm
http://www.cyberclass.net/turmel USENET blog: alt.fan.john-turmel